If Iran shuts down Strait of Hormuz there will be enough oil supply for everybody.
Strait of Hormuz map
If Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore one-fifth of the world’s oil supply could risk to end without a passage, the price of a barrel of oil will increase , perhaps even doubles, as some analysts predict, to near $200.
Almost for any problem, there is a solution (excluding death, if you are not religious). So what are the plans of the world to still use enough oil to mantain global economy and to bring prices down before a global recession?
There are many ways out:
a) Pipelines that circumvent the strait could carry to market at least 7 million of the 17 million barrels of tanker-borne oil that passes through the strait each day.
b) U.S. could release oil from its 700 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve;
c) The International Energy Agency could also tap 14 million barrels a day during a 90-day extraordinary supply stocks that they are required to maintain.
d) Saudi Arabia has a spare production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day
e) all other OPEC members could be pressed to increase production, maybe not Iran´s closest friend Hugo Chavez.
The U.S. now gets only about 9%of the oil it consumes from the Persian Gulf.
This could affect more Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain) and Asia (China, India, Korea) , than America.