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Outcome of Ukraine´s crisis show Crimea will be under Russian influence before 2017.

 

Europe Security News.- Russia´s Putin wants Crimea and Sevastopol in the Black Sea. This situation will be defined before 2017.

Europe Security News.- Russia´s Putin wants Crimea and Sevastopol in the Black Sea. This situation will be defined before 2017.

Ukraine is a nation torn between Russia and the European Union, situated at the heart of the “shared neighbourhood” between the two blocs.

Volodymyr Konstantinov,  Speaker of the Crimea parliament,  declared that the Russian-majority region might secede from Ukraine , “it is possible, if the country breaks apart. And everything is moving towards that,” he told Russian news agency Interfax.

The region of Crimea lies strategically located for Russian national interests, on the northern coast of the Black Sea. Many atomic rockets are situated then since the Soviet Union. Also Russia’s massive Black Sea Fleet is stationed at Sevastopol and 60% of the region’s population are ethnic Russians. Stalin used to locate Russian population in the former Soviet Republics, in order to divide and control.

Approximately 21% of Ukraine’s population is Russian and it holds deep cultural and historical links with modern Russia because of its Soviet history.

The Russian Government, including Armed Forces and Intelligence Communiti (FSB, GRU, f.e.) views Ukraine as part of  Russia´s “sphere of influence” and sees the country as an ally against the growth of European Union within the Russian borders. The Russian elite, will not allow Europe and the United States  to take away Ukraine from Russia´s influence. The spirit of the Soviet Union is not totally dead, Russia considers Ukraine as part of the family and is willing to invade Crime -if necessary- to protect its interests.  Like the Russian Army did in Georgia in 2008, in order to protect  the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Current situation in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Parliament appointed today Alexandr Turchinov, Batkivschina party”s second-in-command and right hand of former prime minister Yulia Timoshenko, as acting president. Turchinov was voted yesterday acting president in a session that approved the coming into force, without previous discussion and signing by Ukrainian president, of the Constitution of 2004 imposed during the so-called Orange Revolution backed by western countries.

The volatile situation in Ukraine is beginning to resolve itself into a split between two rival regions and governments – the pro-Western opposition in Kiev, and the pro-Russian government in Kharkiv, where Yanukovych is marshalling support.

Both U.S. President Obama  is keeping his intervention in the Ukraine conflict low key. Obama has no inclination to challenge Putin, at the risk of losing his understandings with Iran and a free ride out of the Middle East by courtesy of Russia’s entry.

Neither does the US president want to be dragged into European affairs after he and three of his predecessors in the White House expended considerable energy on disassociating America from the continent and pivoting the US eastward. Asia is the main interest for the U.S. , not the former Soviet Republics.